Division l Same Daily Missions 3 Days In A Row

What is going on with the Division at the moment? Fans are not happy that they have had the same Daily Missions for 3 days in a row.

Hudson Refugee Camp (Hard)

10 Phoenix Credits, Blue crafting material

Madison Field Hospital (hard)

10 Phoenix Credits, Blue crafting material

Lincoln Tunnel Checkpoint (Challenging)

20 Phoenix Credits, Yellow Crafting Material

Are you annoyed that they are the same again?

Reddit user Shanix made this point.

Assuming that each mission has equal weight, and the challenge missions are chosen first, there is a 1/4 chance per day that Lincoln is the mission.

For this, I’m going to assume that you can’t choose the same mission for hard and challenge.

Now we have 29 missions to choose from, and after that we have 28 to choose from. And more importantly, the order the hard missions are picked does not matter (it f***s everything if so).

1/4 * 1/29 * 1/28 = 0.0003 = 0.03% chance that we come up with the Permutation of Lincoln_C, Madison_H, and Hudson_H.

Across 3 days, that would be a 0.000027% chance of getting Lincoln_C, Madison_H, and Hudson_H. Or, just 0.000027% greater chance of getting loot worth keeping.


Related, if we assume order DOES matter beyond Challenge Mission, then we must consider that Lincoln_C, Madison_H, and Hudson_H does not equal Lincoln_C, Hudson_H, and Madison_H.

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